A Monthly Publication of The Madras Management Association

 

The Next US President - The Indian Angle
D V VENKATAGIRI, DIRECTOR, FICCI – TAMILNADU

Few things can be both exciting and weary at the same time. The US Presidential election is one. Weary because of the long and excruciating time that the primaries were held giving rise to heated and cliché debates; and exciting because it was a wonderful display of the vibrancy and maturity of American democracy.

Thanks to the media hype, that many a laymen would have thought that the actual race for the US presidential post was already on and that it was between Obama and Clinton. Now that Obama has emerged as the Democratic party’s presidential nominee by beating Clinton in a historic electoral campaign, the battle lines are clearly drawn for the November 2008 presidential elections. Barack Obama Vs John McCain – the next few months will be very crucial in deciding who of the two, will next occupy, what is arguably, the most powerful seat in the world on 20th January 2009.

Soaring energy prices, a not-so-good- looking economy, a tiring and endless war in Iraq, the continuous reports that speak of the growing unpopularity of the US in other parts of the world have all made sure that the new US President will be facing an uphill task.

While Obama promises a ‘Change’, something that has been a captivating part of his campaign, and McCain will be trying to consolidate on the work done by Bush, what matters for India is the stand that the two take on key bilateral (Indo-US) issues.

The Democrats, who have been raising their concerns, about the proposed Indo-US nuclear deal, have been traditionally considered to be friendlier to India (courtesy the Charisma of Bill Clinton and his historic visit in 1995) and are expected to be more liberal in education and visas. On the other hand the Republicans have proved to be capable of out-of the box thinking by proposing and giving shape to the Indo-US Nuclear Deal and in pushing the trade agenda to new levels.

One can safely say, that except for the Nuclear deal, whoever comes to power, they will be pursuing all elements in the Indo-US spectrum with the same enthusiasm.

Let us look at some important and broad issues between the two countries.

The Remarkable Shift
It does not require a keen observer of international politics to say that the Indo-US relations has been on a tremendous upswing in the last decade or so. The nature and magnitude of the transformation in the relationship between the two countries has been so stupendous and all-pervasive that rarely a day goes without that being discussed by the various players – politicians, strategic thinkers, academicians, business bodies, etc. In fact, this transformation is well worth a deep study not only for other nations in the international sphere, but for the two nations concerned, as well, to realise and reap the benefits completely and to protect this transformation.

Two very significant events in 1991 proved to be a catalyst in Indo-US relations. The fall of Soviet Russia and the initiation of economic reforms by India. That was the beginning of the transformation of Indo-US relations. While the 1991 events marked the beginning of the transformation, the Nuclear tests conducted by India in May 1998 and the terrorist attack on the US in September 2001 ( 9/11) put the transformation on an intense and serious level. Particularly, the 9/11 terrorists attack on the US brought US closer to India in understanding India’s security concerns. The two largest democracies required decades of mutual mud-slinging and such a spate of events to become engaging partners from being estranged ones.

Indian Diaspora , Education
The words of the US President Bush reflect the high level of engagement between India and the US, now - “our people share a devotion to family, a passion for learning, a love of the arts, and much more. The United States is the proud home of more than two million Americans of Indian descent, a figure that has more than tripled over the last 20 years. America is honored to welcome 500,000 Indian tourists and businesspeople to our country each year. And we benefit from 80,000 Indian students at our universities, more than we have from any other nation. Many Americans of Indian origin have made tremendous contributions to my country in technology and medicine and business and countless other fields”.
The Indians who have made US their home are among the most affluent sections of the US and they are increasingly playing a greater role in the American polity, not just through fund-raising but by more direct methods. Bobby Jindal, an Indian American who is the Governor of the Louisiana State, is tipped to contest for the Vice-President post as the Republican candidate.
It may be very interesting to note that the 80,000 plus Indian students who go to the US for higher studies, put into the US economy USD 20 bn . This is huge money and this is the reason why many US universities are marketing their courses with such aggression in India. The message here for India is, Indian Universities will have to be smart and adaptable in marketing their courses for the US students.

Trade, Visas & Outsourcing
From a bilateral trade of US $4 billion in 1991 it has grown to $37 billion in the last 16 years. The growth of Indo-US Business is tremendous but the potential is very huge and much more could be done in that front. Particularly, forging relations between the SMEs in both the countries will pave way for greater trade and investment to happen.

One persisting issue that is causing lot of heart burn among Indians is the uncertainty of getting the US Visa even for genuine travelers as the onus of proving “not-guilty of settling down in the US” is on the visa applicant . Also, Indians, known for their traditional “soft approach”, towards matters, have not made adequate noise on this and this has only intensified the problem. We need to be loud and clear that the US visa regime has to be more pragmatic and friendlier. An enlightened self-interest and a pragmatic approach are really the need of the hour to take India’s interest forward.

Politics is the same everywhere, be it the US or India. The protectionist cries on the Outsourcing issue is expected to mellow down after the elections. Not only the Indian business, but the US economy has gained and will continue to gain because of outsourcing.

The Greater Lesson
The contrast between Obama and McCain will be not just in the colour of the skin, but in their approach, age, freshness and energy. While Obama, who currently has an edge over McCain, has to safeguard his broad base, McCain has to work aggressively to expand a narrow support base. Analysts say that McCain is on a weak wicket on three major issues – Economy, Healthcare and Iraq.

From globalisation and nuclear proliferation to climate change and terrorism – Indo-US interaction and cooperation are at a very high level and today, India is more important to the US than anytime before. We can wish good luck for Obama and McCain and watch the interesting battle in the weeks to come.

On a different note, in this high-energy, Obama-Clinton political fight there is an important lesson for the Indian Polity. After defeating Clinton in the Democratic party nomination race, Obama said, “Our party and our country are stronger because of the work that Hillary Rodham Clinton has done throughout her life, and I look forward to working with her..”

Indian’s rise as a nation will be complete and full only if we imbibe this spirit.
The views expressed are that of the author and do not reflect FICCI’s viewpoint.






 
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